Odds Of Winning Poker At A Casino
Blackjack and video poker are two casino games that share a few similarities. They’re among the most popular casino games. They both involve lots of strategy, and they offer really low house edges under the right circumstances.
Blackjack and video poker have each been among the most played casino games for decades. Fans of these games love using in-depth strategy to improve their odds of winning.
If the poker hand simulator says you only win the hand 19% (4 to 1 odds) of the time, but you had to call a pot-sized bet to see the river (2 to 1 pot odds), then you shouldn’t have made the call. You can also use the poker calculator to help commit common odds and situations to memory. So do yourself a favor and only place a bet when the odds of winning are the most favorable. Video poker games can have a house edge as low as 0.5%, giving it one of the best casino game odds. It’s a computerized game based on five-card draw poker, with a few innovations thrown in to make things interesting. Video poker payout odds can be different depending on the game, but a Jacks or Better game played with a perfect strategy can give the player a 99.54 percent return on their money. Even if you don’t know perfect video poker strategy and you only make the occasional mistake, that average return will only drop down to 99.52 percent.
Assuming you use perfect strategy on the right blackjack or video poker variation, you’ll be facing less than a 0.5% house edge. These odds are quite good considering that the average casino game features over a 2% house advantage.
The merits behind both video poker and blackjack are easy to see. But which of these is the better skill-based game? I’ll answer this question by discussing the basics of each game along with their pros and cons.
Basics of Blackjack
Real money blackjack gives you more options than most card games. After receiving your initial two cards, you can either hit or stand.
You also have the ability to double down (rules permitting), split a pair (e.g. two 9s), or surrender (rare rule). Your goal is to beat the dealer’s hand without going over a score of 21.
Assuming your first two cards equal 21 (a.k.a. “natural”), you receive either a 3:2 or 6:5 payout on your original bet. The amount depends upon the table rules.
The only way you won’t receive an enhanced payout is if the dealer also has a natural. Your bet will be a push in this instance.
Learning Blackjack Strategy
Blackjack seems fairly complicated at first glance. The strategy can also be difficult to learn when considering the multiple options facing you at each stage.
Luckily, many blackjack strategy resources are available. You can consult articles, books, strategy charts, and trainers.
Unless you’re counting cards, I don’t suggest spending much time with articles or books. These resources are inefficient for studying basic strategy.
A strategy chart is the simplest and most effective tool for learning the basics. You can simply Google “blackjack strategy chart” and quickly find one.
These charts lay out exactly which moves you should make in each situation. If you have 14 and the dealer’s upcard is 8, for example, then the chart will suggest that you hit.
A trainer is a program that offers suggestions while you play blackjack. Much like charts, you can easily find free programs just by Googling “blackjack trainer.”
The trainer will point out when you make strategic mistakes while playing. If you don’t split aces, for instance, the program will alert you to this gaffe.
Trainers aren’t totally necessary if you’re just playing online blackjack. However, they’re great for naturally learning blackjack strategy before heading to a land-based casino.
Pros of Blackjack
Blackjack isn’t the most popular casino card game without reason. It offers several notable benefits, including the following.
Strategy Is Easy to Learn
Again, blackjack strategy appears complex in the beginning. Each decision presents you with multiple choices.
Do you hit or stand with 12 versus the dealer’s up card of seven? Should you double down on 10 when the dealer shows nine?
Strategy charts are especially helpful when you’re playing online blackjack and have time to learn. Trainers are great for when you’ll be playing land-based blackjack and can’t refer to a chart for every decision.
Low Volatility
Blackjack doesn’t quite give you a 50% chance of winning hands. You actually only have around a 42% chance to win each round.
However, splitting, double downs, and natural payouts raise your odds tremendously. The dealer, on the other hand, can’t split, double down, or earn natural payouts.
With the right strategy and game, you’ll only be facing around a 0.5% house edge. Taking everything into account, you won’t face much volatility with this game.
Profitable Advantage Play Method
You may feel like a blackjack master after thoroughly learning basic strategy. But you can take things even further by studying card counting, too.
Contrary to popular belief, card counting doesn’t require an MIT degree to learn. You can quickly pick up how to count cards within minutes.
The key obstacle is being able to count well enough to keep up with the dealer amid casino distractions. You also need a large bankroll (e.g. $10,000 or more) to survive the variance.
Card counting is easy in theory but far more difficult in person. Nevertheless, it’s worthwhile if you love blackjack and want to gain an edge.
Cons of Blackjack
While blackjack may be one of the greatest casino games ever, it definitely has some flaws. Here are the serious downsides to consider with this game.
House Edge Varies Widely Between Games
I’ve mentioned multiple times that the blackjack house edgecan be around 0.5%. However, you shouldn’t take for granted that the house advantage will be this low.
First off, the rules change from table to table. One game may feature a 0.5% house advantage, while the next can offer a 2% house edge.
You need to learn the different rules that can alter the odds before playing. Natural payouts have the biggest impact. A 3:2 payoff lowers the house advantage by 1.4% compared to a 6:5 payout.
Your skills also weigh into the matter. If you’re a bad player, then you may be facing a 3% house advantage or higher.
High Bets in Land-Based Casinos
Online casinos are typically the best places to play blackjack. They feature the lowest house edge, on average, and also accept small minimum bets ($1 in most cases).
Brick and mortar casinos are a different story. They must pay dealers to run games and cover higher utility bills.
Therefore, land-based casinos can’t afford to accept $1 wagers. They normally require a $10 minimum bet. If you find anything lower than this, you’re probably sitting at a table with bad rules.
Few Chances to Win Big
Blackjack games do offer progressive jackpots and side bets. However, the average game doesn’t feature these extra frills.
The main way to win big with blackjack is to bet big. Odds are, though, you don’t have $10,000 to bet per hand.
Basics of Video Poker
Video poker comes in a large number of variations. But at its core, this game is simply just Draw Poker. You receive a five-card hand to start each round. You must decide which cards you want to keep and discard.
For every card you discard, you must draw a card to replace it. Here’s an example:
- You’re dealt: Ac-10h-As-4h-7c
- You keep Ac-As.
- You must draw three cards to replace 10h-4h-7c.
Your hand will be complete after the draw round. You’ll receive a payout if your hand qualifies for one.
Qualifying payouts differ based on which variation you’re playing. Jacks or Better pays for as little as a pair of jacks, for example, while Deuces Wild requires you to hold a three of a kind.
Your payouts will also be affected by how much you’re betting per round. Standard variations let you wager between one and five coins per hand. You should wager five coins in order to achieve top return to player (RTP) for any game you’re playing.
Learning Video Poker Strategy
Video poker strategy centers on knowing which cards to keep in each situation. You also have to account for which variation you’re playing, too. For instance, Jacks or Better strategy differs from Deuces Wild video poker strategy.
If you’re looking for a place to begin with strategy, then Jacks or Better (JoB) is a good choice. JoB forms the basis for all other variations.
A great deal of strategy charts exist for JoB across the internet due to its popularity. That said, you should have little trouble getting started with this game.
Unfortunately, you won’t be able to find charts for every variation. In these cases, you’ll have to use video poker trainers. Free trainers cover some of the more popular games. However, you’ll have to buy a training program (typically around $50) for other variants.
Video poker trainers are just like those available for blackjack. You play the game and receive suggestions on right or wrong decisions from the trainer.
Pros of Video Poker
Video poker offers a unique combination of large prizes and high payback. You can read about these advantages and more below.
Features Big Payouts
One big benefit that video poker has over blackjack is its top payout. This game pays 4,000 coins for a royal flush on a five-coin bet.
Assuming each coin is worth $0.25, you’ll be risking $1.25 per hand. You’d turn this small amount into $1,000 with a royal flush.
You can also look forward to other solid prizes with a five-coin wager. A straight flush (250 coins), four of a kind (125), and full house (45) also deliver large payouts.
Some Games Offer Over 100% RTP
Video poker is much like blackjack in that it gives you an opportunity to gain an edge. Certain variations offer over 100% RTP to skilled players.
Deuces Wild, for instance, pays back 100.76%. Double Bonus (100.17% RTP) and Double Double Bonus (100.07%) also pay well.
Even if you don’t find one of these games, you can still look forward to high payback with 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54% RTP).
Simple Rules
Video poker isn’t a difficult game to play. In fact, you can quickly dive into video poker without having ever played.
All you need to do is select your discards and draw. As long as you’re not overly concerned with strategy, then you’ll find this game very easy.
Cons of Video Poker
While video poker may offer you a great chance to win, it also requires you to work hard. You should really consider the following downsides before committing to this work.
Strategy Is Difficult to Learn
Unless you find a chart for your chosen variation, you’re going to have a tough time with video poker strategy. Training yourself to make correct plays takes lots of time and effort.
You may find this undertaking to be worth the effort if you love video poker. But if you’re just approaching video poker from a casual perspective, then you may want to consider the slightly easier blackjack.
Strategy for Each Variation Can Be Hard to Find
As if video poker strategy isn’t already difficult enough, it’s not always readily available for each variation. This is especially the case for full-pay versions of Deuces Wild and Bonus Poker.
9/6 Jacks or Better and 8/5 Bonus Poker are the only variants that are featured in charts and trainers galore. You’ll have to spend extra time searching for strategy on most games outside of this scope.
At worst, you’ll need to put $50 or so into buying a trainer. You really want to be serious about the game before dumping money into learning strategy.
High Paying Variations Are Rare
Want to play full-pay Deuces Wild and make solid profits? If so, then you’d better head to Las Vegas, because you won’t find it elsewhere.
The highest-paying variations are tough to find. Downtown Vegas casinos are the only place to spot variants that offer positive-expected value (+EV).
You can find plenty of online video poker games that deliver over 99.5% RTP. You won’t have as much luck, though, in land-based casino destinations other than Vegas.
Conclusion
Which Game Is Better – Blackjack or Video Poker?
You can see that both blackjack and video poker have their high and low points. So, which game reigns supreme when accounting for the pros and cons?
Blackjack. It offers more accessible strategy, easier strategy, and low volatility. You can win frequently in blackjack without racking your brain to do so.
Of course, I’m just offering my personal opinion after looking closely at the matter. You may have a different take based on your personal preferences.
Video poker has its good points, too. You can look forward to large payouts, +EV games, and simplistic play.
However, my biggest issue with video poker is the strategy. You’ll have a tough time finding and learning the strategy for most games.
Winning Money At The Casino
Both video poker and blackjack have unique benefits. But I feel that blackjack has stronger advantages that appeal to myself and the average player.
Slots machines, as games of chance (rather than skill), are generally more about having fun than they are about making money.
However, there are things you can do to maximize your wins and minimize your losses. For example, by calculating a slot machine’s payout percentage, you can obtain a larger picture idea of how much money you stand to win back. Other tactics include using effective bankroll management techniques, joining a slots club to benefit from its rewards programs, and more.
What Are the Odds of Winning on a Slot Machine?
Slot machine odds used to be easy to calculate. When you’re dealing with three reels, ten symbols on each reel, and a limited pay table, then it’s just a simple math problem. But the rise of electromechanical slot machines and (later) video slots added some complexity to the situation.
How Probability Works
Probability has two meanings. One is the likelihood of whether or not something will happen. The other is the branch of mathematics that calculates that likelihood. To understand the odds as they relate to slot machines (or any other gambling game), you have to understand the basic math behind probability.
Don’t worry though. The math isn’t hard. Probability involves addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division, all of which you learned in middle school.
The first principle of probability is that every event has a probability of between 0 and 1. If something has no chance of ever happening, then its probability is 0. If something will always happen, no matter what, then its probability is 1.
Probability is, therefore, always a fraction. It can be expressed in multiple ways, as a decimal, as a fraction, as a percentage, and as odds.
A simple example is a coin flip. The probability of getting heads when you flip a coin is 50%. That’s common sense, but how is it determined mathematically?
You simply take the total number of possible outcomes, and divide the outcome you’re trying to determine the probability of it by that number. There are two possibilities when flipping a coin, heads or tails, but only one of them is heads. That’s 1 divided by 2, which can be expressed as ½, 50%, 0.5, or 1 to 1 odds.
Odds are expressed as the number of ways something won’t happen versus the number of ways that something will happen. For example, if you’re rolling a single six-sided die, and you want to know the odds of rolling a six, you’re looking at 5 to 1 odds. There are five ways to roll something other than a six, and only one way of rolling a six.
When you want to determine the probability of multiple things happening, you use addition or multiplication, depending on whether you want to determine whether one OR the other event will occur, or whether you want to determine whether one event AND the other event will occur.
If you’re looking at an “OR” question, you add the probabilities together. If you’re looking at an “AND” question, you multiply the probabilities by each other.
So if you want to know what the probability of rolling two dice and having one or the other come up with a six, you add the probabilities together. 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6, which is rounded down to 1/3.
If you want to know the probability of rolling two dice and having BOTH of them come up six, you multiply the probabilities. 1/6 X 1/6 = 1/36.
How Slot Machine Odds USED to Work
Early slot machines were mechanical devices. They had three metal reels that had ten possible stops each.
To calculate the odds of a single symbol appearing on a reel, you just divide the one symbol by the total number of potential outcomes. So if you had one cherry on a reel, your odds of hitting that cherry were 1/10, or 10%.
To calculate the odds of getting three cherries, you multiple 1/10 X 1/10 X 1/10 and get 1/1000, or 0.1%.
If the odds of hitting that symbol are the same as all the others, then you have 10 possible jackpots you can win, which means that your chances of winning SOMETHING are 10/1000, which is 1%.
Most people wouldn’t play a slot machine that lost 99 times out of 100, though, so slot machine designers added additional, smaller prizes for getting two symbols out of three for certain symbols. And as long as they paid out less in prizes than the odds of hitting those jackpots, then those slots are guaranteed to make a profit in the long run.
For example, if a prize for hitting three cherries was $1000, you’d be playing a break-even game, but if the prize were $750, it’s easy to see how the casino would be guaranteed a profit. The difference between the odds of winning and the payout odds is where the casino makes its money.
How Slot Machines Work Now
Modern slot machines use a computer program called a random number generator to determine the outcomes of the various spins of the reels. This creates an imaginary reel with a number of symbols limited only by the program in question.
A mechanical slot machine with 256 symbols per reel would be huge, too large to play, much less to build. But a computer can create an imaginary reel with 256 symbols per reel and take up no more space than an iPod Shuffle.
To make things even more interesting and entertaining, slot machine designers can program different probabilities for each symbol to come up. Most symbols might come up once every 256 spins, but others might come up twice as often, while still others might only come up half as often.
This enables slot machine designers and casinos to offer slot machine games with far larger jackpots than they were able to when they were limited by mechanical reels. And they’re able to offer these large jackpots and still generate a healthy profit.
How Does This Relate to Payback Percentages?
The payback percentage is the amount of money that the slot machine is designed to pay out over an enormous number of spins. This number is almost always less than 100%. The difference between 100% and the payback percentage is the house edge, and that’s where the casino makes its profits.
A simple example can help illustrate how this works. Suppose you have a slot machine with three reels with ten symbols on each, and it only pays out when three cherries hit. The odds of winning that jackpot, as we determined earlier, is 1/1000.
If we set the jackpot as $900, and charge $1 per bet, the payout percentage for that game will be 90%, or $900/$1000. Of course, no one would play a slots game which only paid out once in every 1000 spins, which is why there are various smaller payouts programmed in.
There’s no way to tell what the payback percentage on a particular game is unless you have access to the par sheet for that machine. Casino management has that information, but players never have access to that info.
The best slot machine odds are almost always found in real casinos. If you see slot machines in an airport or a bar, be aware that the payback percentages on those games is much lower than you’ll see in a real casino.
How to Win at Slot Machines
Everyone would like to know how to win at slots, but the truth is that winning at slot machines isn’t any harder than losing at slot machines. You put your money in the machine, spin the reels, and hope for the best. Slot machines are meant to be fun; they’re not intended to provide the player with an income.
In fact, the reality is just the opposite. Slots are there to provide the casino owners with an income. How that works is one of the subjects of this page.
Chances Of Winning At Casino
On the other hand, you can minimize your losses and increase your enjoyment of slots games by understanding how they work. You can also learn which slots pay back the most money. In the long run, the house will still have an edge over you, but understanding how much you can expect to lose in a given venue can help you make better bankroll management decisions.
In fact, it might be a good idea to modify you definition of “winning at slots”. Instead of considering yourself a winner if you bring home a big profit, consider yourself a winner any time you played and had a lot of fun.
How Slots Work
All slot machines in modern casinos use a random number generator (an “RNG) to determine the results of each spin. An RNG is a tiny computer that does nothing but constantly generate numbers. When you push the spin button, that microcomputer selects a number which determines the outcome. In fact, this happens before the reels have even stopped spinning.
On modern slot machines, the reels are just there for show. From a practical standpoint, you could put a quarter in a machine, push a button, and have the screen flash: “You lose!” or “You win $10”. The mechanism that determined the outcome would be the same, but who would want to play a game like that, especially if you know that the house has a mathematical edge over the player.
The spinning reels, the sound effects, and the bonus games are all there to make the game more interesting to play. If you don’t like the artwork, the music, or any other aspect of a slots game, don’t bother playing it, because those are the real rewards of playing. The chance of getting lucky and winning a jackpot is a real reward, too, but don’t ignore the other aspects of the game.
The random number generator is programmed to pay back a certain percentage of the money paid into it over a period of time. This period of time is known in gambling math as “the long run”, and it’s a lot longer than most people think. We’re talking about tens of thousands of spins, not dozens or hundreds.
This percentage that’s programmed into these machines is always less than 100%. If a slots game were programmed to pay back more than 100% of the money put into it, it would lose money for the casino.
Casinos aren’t in business to lose money.
The trick is to find slot machines that have the highest payout percentages.
Which Slots Pay Back the Most Money
If every slot machine game in the world had a payback percentage posted on the machine somewhere, it would be easy to determine which slots pay back the most money. You could limit your play to machines with a payback percentage of over 95% for example.
It’s too bad casinos don’t provide that information on specific games, though.
Best Odds Of Winning Slots
You can find information about specific locations and their payback percentages, though. Some gambling guides and magazines publish this information. For example, The American Casino Guide provides certified information about the payout percentages in various states. Not all states reveal this information, but it’s not a huge leap of logic to expect better payback percentages in states that do reveal this information.
For example, the overall payback percentage for slots in Black Hawk, Colorado is 92.8%. In Central City, Colorado, it’s 92.93%, and in Cripple Creek, it’s 93.66%. Alabama doesn’t release the numbers on their payback percentages.
Which casinos do you think offer the better game?
A couple of guidelines hold true no matter where you play, though. One of those is that payouts are better in large cities with lots of gambling. For example, the payouts in Vegas are higher overall than the payouts in Colorado. And the payouts improve when you play for higher stakes. For example, penny slots in Vegas average around 88% to 91%, but dollars slots average between 93% and 96%. Finally, slot machines at airports usually offer the lowest payouts.
What does that mean for the player? It means that over the long run, if you wager $x on a particular game, you’ll win back $x times the payback percentage for that machine. If you’re playing a dollar slot machine on the Strip in Las Vegas, for example, and the payout percentage is around 93%, then if you place $10,000 in wagers, you’ll win back $9300. You lost $700.
That’s only a long term mathematical expectation, though. In the short run, anything can happen, and that’s what keeps people playing.
Best Odds At Casino
How to Maximize Your Winnings and Minimize Your Losses
There are three ways to maximize your winnings and minimize your losses. The first is to always join the slots club, and always use your member card while you play. Slots club members get a percentage of their play returned to them in the form of casino rewards and cash back. This is normally a tiny percentage (think 0.1% or 0.2%), but it adds up, especially if you play a lot.
Don’t buy into the myth that playing with your slots club card lowers your expected return on the game, either. That’s not true. The random number generator in these games has no way of knowing whether or not you’re using your slots club card or not.
Chances Of Winning Poker At Casino
The second way to increase your winnings and minimize your losses is to use effective bankroll management techniques. This means limiting the amount of time that you play, limiting the amount of money that you’re willing to lose in any session and in any given gambling trip, and finding other fun things to do with your time besides just playing the slots.
Finally, try to play the machines with the highest payout percentage. Over the long run, if you keep playing, you’ll probably eventually wind up a loser at the slots (unless you hit a huge progressive jackpot), but you’ll lose your money more slowly and get more entertainment value for the money you gambled.